ED Now

Aaron N. Gruen of Gruen Gruen + Associates shares his 2024 Economic and Real Estate Outlook with ED Now.

Aaron N. Gruen of Gruen Gruen + Associates—an urban economics, market research, housing and land use policy, and pre-development services firm—shares his annual economic and real estate outlook with ED Now.

A classic rule of thumb used to define a recession is that the economy is in recession when it experiences two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The U.S. economy met this definition in the first half of 2022, contracting 1.6% in the first quarter and 0.9% in the second. While every recession that has hit the United States in the last century saw a significant increase in unemployment, job growth has been exceptionally strong this year. Jon Hilsenrath of the Wall Street Journal used the expression “jobful downturn” to refer to the current environment. The unusual situation raises the question: how will the impacts of a potential “jobful” recession differ from previous downturns?

The United States added 528,000 jobs in July, outpacing an already strong May and June, and making it likely that the Federal Reserve will continue its policy of large rate hikes. The latest jobs report has allayed recession fears in the short term and clears the way for the Fed to continue hiking interest rates in hopes of halting inflation. There is concern among economists about the impact of additional rate hikes, however. While the jobs report suggests the economy is not currently in recession, tight monetary policy could pose a risk for the future. Rate hikes have already caused higher mortgage and loan rates for consumers and businesses. More hikes will lead to an even higher cost of borrowing. These aggressive rate hikes also ...

The Federal Reserve has raised its targeted federal funds rate by 75 basis points, Chair Jerome Powell announced at a news conference on July 27. July’s tightening is the latest aggressive action the Fed has taken as part of its “war on inflation” this year. The Fed aims to reduce inflation to 2 percent from its June level of 9.1 percent. Powell stated that economic growth must be slower in the coming years for the economy to reach that target. Powell’s remarks made it clear that the Fed believes inflation is the biggest problem facing the U.S. economy. However, the rate hike comes at a time when many Americans fear a coming recession or believe the economy is already in one. The day after Powell’s news ...

Aaron N. Gruen, principal of the urban-economics, market-research, land-use policy, and pre-development services firm Gruen Gruen + Associates, shares his thoughts on how to combat skyrocketing gas and housing costs.

IEDC’s recent Investment in Attraction in 2022 webinar discussed ways EDOs can strategize to attract more investment to their communities, highlighting emerging trends in our post-pandemic world. The webinar began by outlining where the economy is headed in terms of globalization. There is a corrosion of globalization happening with heightened protectionist policies. All the while much of our business is shifting to become more digital, and remote working is increasing. Combine that with workforce shortages, inflation, higher interest rates, and a possible recession, and investments can become very confusing to navigate. Nadine Jeserich, PhD, vice president of analytics for Gazelle.ai, touched on ways in which EDOs can promote ...

In recent months the United States has seen inflation grow to the highest in more than 40 years, with prices 8.5 percent higher than they were a year earlier. Income, on the other hand, has not kept pace with surging food and gas prices. But economists and policy experts are seeing signs that inflation may be reaching its peak. They note that it is important to keep an eye on food and gas prices to determine this. One of the clearest signs that inflation is reaching its peak is that prices for “core” goods grew at a slower rate in March than in February. The price of oil fell from its peak price of $124 a barrel to $94 a barrel at the beginning of April. Gas prices have followed, with the price for a gallon of gas decreasing ...